How much longer until the escalation stops?

Tyler Davis
Tue, 30 Mar 2021 13:41:13 +0700

We're now getting to a point where the two main protagonists of this fight: the Tatmadaw and the protestors/demonstrators are trying to outdo eachother's tactics. We've seen this since the beginning.

1. Coup happens

2. People bang pots and pans

3. Tighter restrictions enacted by junta

4. People peacefully take to the streets

5. Police start using tear gas

6. Protestors begin to wear goggles, gas masks, other protective gear ... Throw back gas canisters at security forces

7. Security forces use rubber bullets

8. Protestors design make-shift shields

9. Security forces use real bullets (deaths occur)

10. Protestors make better shields and start to arm themselves with slingshots and molotov cocktails

11. More and more deaths occur at the hands of the security forces

12. Protestors learn to make their own grenades, canonons, RPGs, and other weapons à la Anarchist Cookbook.

Meanwhile, some ethnic armed groups (EAOs), particularly the KNU (Karen National Union) have decided to show their muscle against the Tatmadaw. The KNU captured at least 10 Burmese soldiers and plundered the base, taking a lot of weaponry and then proudly posting their loot on the internet for all to see. The Tatmadaw certainly saw it and launched an air-raid offensive which lasted throughout the weekend of 27-28 March.

Everywhere you turn in Burma now, you see nothing but escalation of violence and advancement of tactics, "on all sides," to quote a(n) (in)famous U.S. President. The big question now is, "which side gives first" and "to what level will this situation (de)escalate?"

It appears to me that the demonstrators are not yet willing to back down and the military is certainly not in a position where they would back down. As one scholar remarked to me, the only situation where the military would back down, is if they were given a face-saving method of backing out of the situation. If the military simply backs out of their own volition, they may appear weak, from an Asian perspective. However, if someone else gives them a viable option of backing off, such as a lovely retirement package for all of the top brass, then no one has anything to be ashamed of.

The only certain thing is that many people are very skeptical of positive developments within the month of April and those who can are getting out of the city and even the country altogether. It's only a waiting game, at this point.